Timing is everything.
Why? Because if you jump into a market late, you may be too late to catch up to market leaders. At the same time, if you jump in too early, no one will listen to you.
He ends with this thought
… I also think that you have to be early to learn the technology and the markets and build the networks and relationships that will allow you to see, understand, and invest in YouTube when it shows up. What you don’t want to do is lose patience or interest and move on, like the Lumiere brothers did. Early stage VC is a marathon, not a sprint. That is true in everything, from the hold periods, to the work you do with a portfolio company, to the patience you must show towards a sector you think will be important. It is hard to sustain the enthusiasm sometimes, but if you have conviction about something, you have to stay the course.
In other words, talk comes first before disruption. For that reason, talk itself has value, even if it is not yet producing returns or even building products or services. But despite this value added, we do not reward talk.