Understanding Uncertainty

We use strategic thinking when we cannot know the answer to a question. This is to be distinguished from planning, when we know the answer but have to implement it.

So strategic thinking involves dealing with uncertainty.It is tool to “do the best we can” given what we know and what we want to achieve.

And so, part of that challenge is understanding uncertainty. Al Wenger gets into this in a fairly detailed way here.

Suffice to say, that dealing with uncertainty requiers

  • a belief in a reality that is beyond what we know now
  • measuring aspects of reality to form at least a partial picture
  • explaining what we measure – to prioritize data and predict outcomes

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