The Problem with Prediction

Clay Christensen is a pretty famous guy. He came up with the idea of the “innovator’s dilemma”. It is a theory of why firms fail when having to adapt to changes in technology. But does it predict anything? Christensen thought it did, but as Jill Lepore points out, he was wildly over-confident. But does that make Christensen’s focus on disruption irrelevant? Not at all. Jash Gans brings this out rather nicely. We still have a problem because in some cases it is not possible to predict with certainty what is coming down the road. In other words, we need better tools to deal with an uncertain future. Those are strategic tools.


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